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Week 4 Predictions Recap

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1.  The Weekend Will Open With An Upset Of Another Top 5 Team

Thanks for not letting me down again, Gamecocks.  South Carolina pretty well dominated Ole Miss, which was ranked way too high to start with.  They only won 16-10, but it wasn’t even that close.  After the Rebels scored on their opening drive, South Carolina scored 16 unanswered, holding a 16-3 lead until 9:47 left in the game.

And Jevan Snead pretty well knocked himself out of Heisman contention with a dreadful performance.  At least I don’t have to hear any more absurd discussion about him being a top-5 pick.  Talk about being overly sweet on a player just because of the conference he plays in.  Snead threw 7-of-21 for 107 yards and one TD.  Combine that with his negative rushing yards, and Snead accounted for only 97 yards of offense.  Ew.  He still has a decent QB rating at 129.64, but he has a horrible 49.3 completion percentage and has just six passing TDs through three games (half of which came against Southeastern Louisiana…no, seriously, that’s a school).

Stephen Garcia and Jarvis Giles didn’t play as well as I expected.  Giles only got two carries for a Gamecocks rushing “attack” that was held to 1.9 yards per carry.  I’m not sure why they cut down on his carries after his breakout game last week.  And Garcia was mediocre, throwing 16-of-34 for 220 yards and one TD.  But all the credit in the world to the other USC’s defense.  They were in Snead’s face all night and held them to 1-for-13 on third down conversions.  If they keep playing like that, this won’t be their only upset.  Sadly, South Carolina is still unranked.  They’ve played two ranked opponents and defeated one, but there’s no room for them in the top 25 because of Georgia Tech, Cal, Nebraska, Ole Miss and Georgia, all of whom have one loss but no wins over ranked teams.

South Carolina is getting hosed.  More on that tomorrow.

2. Big Weekend For Lesser-Known Running Backs

I wanted so badly to be right on this one, but I was so, so wrong.  Giles didn’t have the game I expected.  Covaughn DeBoskie-Johnson of Cal didn’t get a single carry as the Bears were completely dominated by Oregon.  Where did that come from?  I know Oregon is always tough at home, but they had allowed over 150 yards rushing per game and Cal had racked up over 250 yards rushing per game.  Oregon must have figured something out, because they held Cal to 77 yards (2.4 per carry) en route to an absolutely butt whoopin’.
As for UTEP’s Donald Buckram…I didn’t expect him to have a big big game, but I thought he’d get the ball enough for a little razzle dazzle.  He didn’t even get that much, as the Miners actually tried to catch up to the Horns and their 23-7 first quarter lead.  Granted, Buckram was their lone bright offensive spot, but that’s not saying much.  He had nine carries for 46 yards and was also their leading receiver with three catches for 19 yards.  The Miners were held to 53 yards of offense.  Curiously, his 65 yards actually exceeded the team total of 53.  Funny things like that happen when three other players combine for -53 yards on five carries.

3.  The Big 12 Is The Place To Be For Compelling QB Matchups

What I missed on running backs I made up for on quarterbacks.  Taylor Potts and Case Keenum threw it all over the field in a game that also featured a last-minute, game-winning drive by the Houston Cougars over Texas Tech.  Houston, along with Boise State, is certainly well poised to crash the BCS party.  Keenum and Potts combined to throw 68-0f-103 for 756 yards.  Curiously, all that passing only amounted to two TDs and one INT.  I also want to give some love to the guy who, had the Red Raiders pulled out the win, would have been the difference maker – Baron Batch.  He ran 19 times for a season-high 114 yards (6.0 yards per carry) and 2 TDs, and also chipped in three catches for 39 yards.  He really is a special running back, but goes very overlooked because of Tech’s style of offense.  He only had 17 carries through the first three games.

The stats for the QBs in the Southern Miss at Kansas game just have to make you smile.  Southern Miss’s Austin Davis corrected his slide, and these are the numbers that he and Todd Reesing put up:

Davis:  28/42, 331 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Reesing:  30/41, 331 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

They virtually matched each other, yard-for-yard, and touchdown-for-touchdown.  Even the rushing yards are amazing diametric.  Davis rushed for 26 yards and Reesing rushed for -26.  The only other real difference between the two was that Reesing won.

4.  The ACC Is The Place To Be For “Something’s Gotta Give” Games

I want to preface this by saying it was a horrible weekend for the ACC.  Virginia Tech is up to No. 6 in the AP Poll, but Miami (which was looking like a championship contender to the voters) got slaughtered and fell like a rock.  Their credible win over Florida State looks less credible with the Seminoles getting smoked by South Florida, which didn’t even have its starting QB.  And Georgia Tech jumping into the top 25 doesn’t make up for the fact that FSU and UNC both fell out.

Now, to the actual prediction…I’m going to call this one 50/50.  Some things definitely gave in both games, but I thought it would be the offenses in both cases.  It wasn’t.

North Carlina had held opponents to 52 yards per game before they met a legitimate rushing attack in Georgia Tech.  The Yellow Jackets ran over them like they were a peewee football team.  GaTech racked up 317 yards rushing managing to control the ball for over 42 minutes of the game.  The Tarheels already didn’t have a potent offense, so they were completely impotent when given only 17+ minutes of possession.  This game was a beatdown.

TCU’s defense, on the other hand, did live up to the billing.  The Horned Frogs held Clemson well below their season average with 117 yards rushing and held the Tigers scoreless in the second half on the way to a 14-10 victory.  Their defense looks good, but without some more offense, TCU will stumble somewhere down the road.

5.  Washington Will Stumble

What can I say about this one?  Washington never should have been ranked, even with the win over USC.  That was ridiculous.  They got appropriately creamed by a team that’s not even that good.  Stanford dominated, rushing for 321 yards and holding the Huskies scoreless in the second half.

And can anyone tell me why USC, one week removed from a loss to an unranked team, is already back up to No. 7?  Oklahoma is three weeks removed from a loss to No. 20 BYU and they are ranked 8th.  Oklahoma State is two weeks removed from a loss to No. 12 Houston, and they’re ranked 14th.  Can anyone explain that to me with anything that doesn’t have to do with voters just being in love with USC?  Anyone?


Written by Austin Swafford

September 27, 2009 at 10:43 pm

2 Responses

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  1. I don’t know If I said it already but …Hey good stuff…keep up the good work! 🙂 I read a lot of blogs on a daily basis and for the most part, people lack substance but, I just wanted to make a quick comment to say I’m glad I found your blog. Thanks,)

    A definite great read..Jim Bean


    October 1, 2009 at 4:46 am

    • Sorry, this ended up in our spam file for some reason, so I just saw this. Thanks for the input. I’m very glad you like it and I hope you keep reading.

      Austin Swafford

      October 12, 2009 at 12:03 am

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