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Week 6 Picks

with 11 comments

Jon and I swapped wrong picks last week to keep the winning percentages the same.  This is where we stand:

Austin:  66-16

Jon:  63-19

We only differed on two picks last week, but there’s a lot more room for change this week, as we differ on four picks.  I’m going with a lot more upsets, which haven’t worked out all that well for me this season.  Let’s see if this week is any different.  Our picks for week 6:

Austin Jon
#1 Florida at #4 LSU LSU Florida
#2 Texas vs. Colorado Texas Texas
#3 Alabama at #20 Ole Miss Alabama Alabama
#5 Va. Tech vs. Boston College Va. Tech Va. Tech
#9 Ohio St. vs. Wisconsin Ohio St. Ohio St.
#10 TCU at Air Force TCU TCU
#11 Miami (FL) vs. Florida A&M Miami (FL) Miami (FL)
#12 Iowa vs. Michigan Iowa Michigan
#13 Oregon at UCLA UCLA Oregon
#14 Penn St. vs. Eastern Illinois Penn St Penn St.
#15 Oklahoma St. at Texas A&M Oklahoma St. Oklahoma St.
#16 Kansas vs. Iowa St. Kansas Kansas
#17 Auburn at Arkansas Auburn Auburn
#19 Oklahoma vs. Baylor Oklahoma Oklahoma
#21 Nebraska at #24 Missouri Nebraska Missouri
#22 Georgia Tech at Florida St. Georgia Tech Georgia Tech
#25 South Carolina vs Kentucky South Carolina South Carolina


Written by Austin Swafford

October 7, 2009 at 4:05 am

Posted in Picks of the Week

11 Responses

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  1. LSU over Florida is BOLD…

    UPSETS yall missed: Wisconsin over OSU – Arkansas over Auburn


    October 7, 2009 at 4:42 pm

    • Yeah. And I hated doing it. But, honestly, I’m not wild about how Florida’s played so far. I’m not wild about Tebow’s passing (against an LSU team that you HAVE to be able to pass on) and I’m not wild about Tebow coming off his first injury. I’m also not wild about Florida being on the road. If anyone can prepare their team for this game, it’s Urban Meyer, but I’m really worried about Florida in this game. And I think this will set the stage for the eventual championship between Texas and Alabama.

      I took a good, long good at a number of other potential upsets, including Wisconsin-OSU and Arkansas-Auburn. In both cases, I had too many worries about the underdog’s defense to pull the trigger. Wisconsin’s opponents are averaging 363 yards and 24.6 points per game against them. They’ve actually been outgained in two of their wins, and the only opponent they’ve held under 20 points is WOFFORD. The only other team they’ve held under 28 is Northern Illinois. With numbers like that, I can’t call an upset, especially in a road game.

      Same problem with Arkansas. Auburn’s offense is great. A number of people (including myself) thought they’d be exposed against Tennessee, but they went out and put up 459 yards of offense and 26 points. Tennessee closed at the end to make it look good, but Auburn had a 23-6 4th quarter lead. This team is for real. So is Arkansas’s offense. Mallet is turning into a great QB. That said, I’m not counting on the team that gave up 52 to Georgia (AT HOME) and 35 to Alabama being able to stop Auburn.

      Believe me, I wanted more upsets than I listed. I took a look at 6 potential upsets I ended up not picking. There are some games where I wouldn’t be stunned to see an upset, I just couldn’t logically call it.

      Austin Swafford

      October 7, 2009 at 5:27 pm

  2. Wisconsin has allowed offenses to move up and down the field on them, no doubt, but Im picking the badgers because of the Big 10s reputation for offenses to randomly become stagnant and I havent been impressed with Ohio States ability to overcome thier own mistakes.

    Im just not sold yet on Auburn… if they out score Arkansas, even if its 24-17ish, then I’ll buy Tiger stock… Auburn is the Tigers right? how many Tigers does the SEC have??


    October 7, 2009 at 5:55 pm

    • Good point about the Big 10 offenses, and that’s why I wouldn’t be stunned if Wisconsin won. But, like I said, I just can’t logically pick them, especially on the road. I’m very interested to see how Wisconsin plays against Ohio State’s defense this week, though. This is their first real challenge.

      Austin Swafford

      October 7, 2009 at 6:53 pm

  3. I am still wondering if ZeekGeek is going to shake his head seeing that I am picking Michigan over Iowa. That IMO is the only pick of mine that I kind feel is going out on a limb, the others I have some confidence in. If all goes well I should be back to being tired with you Austin.

    Jon Castano

    October 7, 2009 at 7:42 pm

    • I’m going to assume you meant TIED. And I wouldn’t be shocked if you were. I’m very uncomfortable with UCLA over Oregon. I like the numbers, but numbers don’t mean anything in the Pac 10. That’s the screwiest conference of all of them.

      Austin Swafford

      October 7, 2009 at 7:58 pm

  4. Na, I don’t think Michigan over Iowa would be too much of an upset, but it would surprise me a little. I don’t think Florida will have to score much to win against LSU honestly… that one could like like one of those bad USC games against Stanford or UCLA, 17-6 or something. And I know you got ‘Bama into the NC, Austin, but I’m not sold on them yet either, and I’m really curious to see how they fare against an “exposed” ‘Ole Miss team.

    This is one of those weeks that most upsets would surprise me. I don’t think you’ll see too many.


    October 7, 2009 at 8:16 pm

    • I agree that Florida wouldn’t have to score much to beat LSU. Especially if LSU plays offense like they did against Georgia. That was weak.

      My only point about the passing was that the teams that have been successful in challenging LSU have been able to pass on them. Georgia was nowhere in that game until Cox got it going. Washington passed for over 300 yards. Mississippi state didn’t pass for a ton, but their two TD drives that DIDN’T start on the LSU one yard line featured a 32-yard pass and a 50-yard TD pass. It’s easier to exploit LSU’s passing defense than their running defense, and you need to be able to strike for the big plays. I don’t think Florida needs to score lots of points, but I think if they get into a time of possession/field position/rushing game battle against LSU, they’ll lose.

      Austin Swafford

      October 7, 2009 at 9:04 pm

  5. I’m counting on a kick return and a pick-six. 😉


    October 7, 2009 at 9:15 pm

  6. […] and a running back by committee system without any one standout player.  I agree with what ZeekGeek said earlier this week, that this could be a very low-scoring, ugly, scrap-fight of a […]

  7. […] totally call this wrong, as I didn’t officially pick anyone to lose (in fact, in my picks of the week, I selected all of them to win).  I only said they were in danger of falling out of the top-25.  […]

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