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Week 11 Picks

with 6 comments

Jon and I split picks again last week, so he remained two picks ahead. Our standings on the season:

Jon:  144-38

Austin:  142-40

Jon is getting bold and going way out on some picks again.  I only picked two upsets, and one of them isn’t even that much of an upset, since it’s No. 11 Ohio State over No. 10 Iowa, who is still missing their QB.

  Austin Jon
#1 Florida at South Carolina Florida Florida
#2 Alabama at Mississippi St. Alabama Alabama
#3 Texas at Baylor Texas Texas
#4 TCU vs. #16 Utah TCU TCU
#5 Cincinnati vs. #25 West Virginia Cincinnati Cincinnati
#6 Boise State vs. Idaho Boise State Idaho
#7 Georgia Tech at Duke Georgia Tech Georgia Tech
#8 LSU vs. Louisiana Tech LSU LSU
#9 USC vs. Stanford USC Stanford
#10 Iowa at #11 Ohio St. Ohio St. Ohio St.
#12 Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame Pittsburgh Pittsburgh
#13 Oregon vs. Arizona St. Oregon Oregon
#14 Miami (FL) at North Carolina Miami (FL) North Carolina
#15 Houston at Central Florida Houston Houston
#17 Arizona at California California Arizona
#18 Penn St. vs. Indiana Penn St. Penn St.
#19 Oklahoma St. vs. Texas Tech Oklahoma St. Oklahoma St.
#20 Wisconsin vs. Michigan Wisconsin Wisconsin
#21 Virginia Tech at Maryland Virginia Tech Virginia Tech
#22 BYU at New Mexico BYU BYU
#23 Oregon State vs. Washington Oregon State Oregon State
#24 South Florida at Rutgers South Florida South Florida


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Written by Austin Swafford

November 12, 2009 at 5:18 pm

Posted in Picks of the Week

6 Responses

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  1. Some games I’ll be watching closely, ‘cuz I think they’ll be closer than they’re supposed to be…

    Florida at USC. Spurrier knows Florida. 😉
    TCU vs. Utah. If that were in Utah, I’d take the Utes.
    Cincinnati vs. WV. Does the Bearcat defense show up?

    Technically, Iowa outranks Ohio State, but they are certainly not favored. It seems like there’s a ton of potential upsets out there this week, but I can understand not taking many of them. This could be an ugly week (again).

    zeekgeek

    November 12, 2009 at 5:36 pm

    • Yeah, once again, I took a look at tons of games but found nothing compelling to make me take the picks. I don’t even have a good reason for taking Cal over Arizona. I just think Cal is due and Arizona has been overperforming.

      South Carolina’s an interesting one, but I can’t take a team with that bad a defense over Florida. Utah is not great this year. They’re pretty good, but no way I take them over one of the country’s best defenses.

      And I’ve only watched WVU once this year and was completely underwhelmed. I don’t care if Cincy’s defense shows up. Their offense will trash WVU.

      Austin Swafford

      November 12, 2009 at 5:44 pm

  2. I am SO glad I could not watch the Iowa at Ohio State game (I was backpacking at Pedernales). Still, I gotta hand it to them for competing. But here is my BOLD PREDICTION for this morning: Iowa, after the loss, will move UP in the human polls. I bet that Iowa and Oregon end up moving up ahead of USC, Miami, and Houston, with Iowa probably situated one or two spots behind Ohio State (who should, and may jump LSU).

    Here’s what MY new human poll (top-14 anyway… BCS potentials) would look like, after a number of really good teams struggled (again):

    1. Alabama (the Tide continues to roll)
    2. Texas (constant improvement is impressive)
    3. Florida (20 in a row… barely)
    4. TCU (maybe the most balanced team in the country)
    5. Cincinnati (undefeated, and better than Boise St.)
    6. Boise State (undefeated)
    7. Georgia Tech
    8. Pittsburgh (squeaked by Notre Dame)
    9. Ohio State
    10. LSU
    11. Oregon
    12. Iowa
    13. Penn State
    14. Houston

    Now, I know this might look biased but I’m actually using Austin’s values here… wins. The top six spots are the undefeated teams, in order based on my own ideas of strength of schedule and impressive play week in and week out. After Houston, Iowa, and Utah all lost, Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh remain the only one-loss teams left. After that, with USC and Miami losing, the rest of the spots were left to two-loss teams. Maybe I’m a homer, but I dropped Houston and Utah further down because their losses were more suspect than Iowa’s, and their signature wins not as impressive as Iowa’s, and their strength of schedules are the toilet. I couldn’t move Penn State (or Wisconsin) over Iowa, as Iowa has beaten those teams head-to-head. I would have considered putting Oklahoma State in ahead of Houston, but obviously Houston has the head-to-head win. I’d still have OSU at number 15 though, just ahead of Wisconsin, BYU, and Utah.

    I was partly wrong about my computer ranking predictions for Iowa and Ohio State however… Iowa after losing did fall from 15 to 18 in Jeff Sagarin’s rankings (not a big fall), but Ohio State actually fell from 8 to 11. This is because in Sagarin’s rankings, Wisconsin fell to 31 causing both Iowa and Ohio State to lose a win vs. top-30 that counts for a lot of weight in that poll. On the other hand, USC fell from 9 to only 12 after ANOTHER enormous beatdown, and is in fact still ranked ahead of their latest daddy, Stanford (with identical records). When can we get a playoff again?

    zeekgeek

    November 15, 2009 at 12:10 pm

    • That’s not so far-fetched. Three teams in front of them lost, as did three teams behind them. So there’s room to move up, and not a lot of teams that can hurdle Iowa into those spots. Though I think you should have Standford in your top 14. They’ll land there. Just watch.

      I think the Big 10 came out of this weekend looking pretty bad. Ohio State struggled to beat a team that was without its starting QB. At home, no less. Penn State scuffled with Indiana. Ohio State lost some credibility for its close loss to USC as they continue to plummet. And Iowa lost some credibility for its win over Arizona when they lost to Cal.

      On that same note, I think you have both Penn State and Houston way too high. I appreciate you using my metric, but Houston now has two looses to unranked teams (and not even really good unranked teams). And Penn State…just blegh. I don’t even have words to describe where I think the Big 10 is right now. I would still really like Iowa if they had Stanzi. Without them on top, I don’t like the Big 10 at all.

      USC is going to fall as far as Stanford rises. They just can’t justify having USC anywhere near the top-15 anymore. Three losses, two of them absolute annihilations, and the other coming against an Ohio State team that lost to Purdue and struggled to win a home game against a team without their starting QB. USC is bound for the Alamo Bowl, at best, and its time for the voters to come to grips with that.

      Austin Swafford

      November 15, 2009 at 12:27 pm

    • I’d also be more generous with Pitt for their win against Notre Dame. The final score was close, but they had a 20-3 lead going into the 4th quarter. They were creaming them before Notre Dame had a rally that completely died with seven whole minutes remaining in the game. Pitt stopped their rally cold. I think it was a solid win for the Panthers (and I HATE admitting that because I think the Big East is the only conference out their whose weakness rivals the ACC).

      Austin Swafford

      November 15, 2009 at 12:31 pm

      • I AM being generous with Pitt… if I were using my own biased methods, I wouldn’t have them ahead of so many two-loss teams. 😉

        You are right about the Big-10, but I think the effects will be lessened this week because so many teams in so many conferences also struggled. Florida against South Carolina, Cincinnati against West Virginia, LSU against Louisiana Tech, Pitt against Notre Dame, Oklahoma State against Texas Tech… and that’s not even counting the actual upsets. Just an ugly week.

        I don’t think I’m being too generous to Houston and Penn State. I’m trying to put as much weight as possible on wins with that poll, so strength of schedule and strength of conference, along with bad losses, count for less than wins. There are plenty of two-loss teams to fill those last six spots, so which ones deserve it more? You’ve got LSU, Ohio State, Houston, Oregon, Iowa, Utah, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Wisconsin, BYU, Temple, and Central Michigan to choose from. I like my picks.

        There is NO WAY I would put Stanford in the top-14… you are right, the AP or other human polls probably will, but to me, that would be pretty much the same as putting USC or Miami up there. And there is no way I’d put them in front of Arizona anyway, because they lost the head-to-head (which counts for the same as wins in this method, given equal loss records).

        I’m not going to listen to any of your chatter about strength of conference… when I suggested you try to convince me before that they are any good, I was being facetious. 😉

        Here’s an interesting thought (to me)… if Iowa wins out, they are now pretty likely to get an at-large invitation to the BCS, probably the Fiesta to fill the spot vacated by Texas’ National Championship appearance. If, and it is a big IF, the Sugar Bowl decides not to take the runner-up SEC team because it isn’t LSU, the Fiesta might pick them up instead. It is also likely that Penn State would go to the Capital One bowl, and Wisconsin to the Outback… which could give three (3!) Big-10 vs. SEC January bowl game match-ups. I’m not saying that the Big-10 would win all (or even any) of those games, but it would certainly be a huge opportunity to win back national respect if they could pull off wins in two or three of those games.

        zeekgeek

        November 15, 2009 at 12:59 pm


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